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	Name:	MartiniMan -
	Subject:	May be a different point altogether
	Date:	2/23/2012 10:16:25 AM

It seems to me the bigger news is that the number was revised from plus 5% to actually having been negative 0.5% which means they were way off. Really has to make you wonder about these estimates and whether they can or should be trusted, especially in an election year.

To your point on home values at a 10-year low driving sales, that will only work with first time home buyers. If you currently own a home that is at a low valuation you will be less inclined to purchase since you will take a bath on the sale. And if your home is under water you definitely will stay put. Home values rising actually promotes purchases because you can take the equity you built as a down payment on a new home.

With unemployment at 15% and disproportionately impacting those that would be the first time buyer it makes me wonder where the new sales are coming from. I suspect this number will likewise get revised way down in a month or two as it just doesn't seem to jibe with the reality of the economy. We shall see....