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Name:	jawjagal -	Reply
Subject:	Do you read Atlanta Magazine?
Date:	6/17/2006 10:20:59 PM

June 2006 edition.

Several articles of interest:

1. Cover story: "Second Homes - How to find your dream weekend retreat"
They had mountain choices, lake choices, AND beach choices.
Lake choices - in order: a) Reynolds Plantation. Lake Oconee, Ga.
(feature story)
and then I guess alphabetically b) Bear Lake Reserve, Tuckasegee, N.C.
c) Currahee Club, Toccoa, Georgia
d) The Reserve at Lake Keowee, Sunset, S.C.
e) The Ridge on Lake Martin

There was a flyer in the magazine for The Seasons of Lake Burton.

(Featured Beach - #1 - choice is Rosemary Beach with Emerald Grande at HarborWalk Village, Destin and Owl's Head, Freeport, Florida as a part of the top 5 - like above.. Other choices were Cumberland Harbour, St. Mary's Georgia, and Oldfield, Okatie, S.C.

2) And then there is an article titled, "Bubble Trouble." See if this fits you. It does us:
"Steve Palm, owner of Atlanta-based real estate tracking firm, Smart Numbers, says double-digit appreciation rates are usually a good indicator that a bubble is forming, with 20 percent appreciation rates signaling a bona fide bubble."

In the 5 years that we have owned, condo sales in the Blue Creek area, indicate that if we sold today, we'd have made 20% a year on what we paid.

Now, this may be applying to Atlanta only and not resort/lake property.

What do you think?

.

Name:	ridgeman -	Reply
Subject:	Do you read Atlanta Magazine?
Date:	6/18/2006 10:13:49 AM

Thanks for the info. about the magazine. I think i will pick one up.
For me i dont think a bubble exist for property around lake martin.
And if one would exist i dont think it would be the bubble that some
Think it is.

Name:	boataholic -	Reply
Subject:	Do you read Atlanta Magazine?
Date:	6/19/2006 8:40:55 AM

There might be a small bubble coming for the 1.2 to 1.5 million dollar spec homes that seem to be multiplying too rapidly, and I expect a bubble for the high end condos (700,000 and up). I don't believe there will be a bubble on homes and cabins anytime soon. I expect at least another 50% appreciation before it starts to slow. Prices are still low enough that the upper middle class can afford to buy so there are far more buiyers than sellers.

Name:	HTMLman -	Reply
Subject:	Cash on cash
Date:	6/19/2006 9:14:46 AM

A bubble is somehing that may pop. Ever time copper hit $1.20 per pound, the mines would pay overtime and the price would go down with the increasted supply. Copper hit $3.50 latley. The mines can only produce so much. Now, it may pop.

Same for Lake Martin. This is not some place like Florida where you can always develope the next farm field. APC and Russell will not flood the market.

Florida condos went from $20,000 in 1971 to $60,000 in 1981. Then tax changes put thousands on market in 1987. I got a nice one in 1999 for 40,000.

My Aunt bought a condo in year 2000 for $2000 down. Never mind what she paid. It is not important. Her monthly payments were like rent payments. She sold last year, paid mortgage amd walked away with $80,000. THAT is what is important.

It is called "cash on cash" return. Her condo went up "only" 3x, but her $2000 went up 40x. Her condo in CA would be ~$250,000 at least.

A long way to for the bubble.

Name:	jawjagal -	Reply
Subject:	Cash on cash
Date:	6/19/2006 9:20:11 AM

Did you mean you bought in 1989...not 1999? We bought in1989, too, and got a great deal after the tax change and the oversupply. Today, if we sold, it would be 6x's what we paid. But that's if we could sell. There are lots of condos on the market in Destin. Luckily, we didn't buy it to flip, like many who bought lately.

Name:	jawjagal -	Reply
Subject:	Cash on cash
Date:	6/19/2006 9:21:42 AM

PLUS, I think, also, as long as there are baby boomers, there will be the want and need of second homes. When does the babyboomer time frame end? 1964?

Name:	HTMLman -	Reply
Subject:	Cash on cash
Date:	6/20/2006 6:01:48 AM

Bradenton, FL was an overlooked area until 2000. I bought one condo in the Ironwood golf complex in 1999 for $45,000. It was first floor. Second and third floors went for $40,000. First floors were allowed tile or hard wood floors. If a condo was below you, you had to have carpet to keep noise down. No need for elevator also. My Aunt bought in 2001 for $43,000, but it was not as nice.. Not on golf course, third floor.

I sold in Nov 2004 for $93,000 when I moved here. I missed a great price move. My Aunt held to 2005 and Bradenton had 45% inflation in 9 months. highest in nation. She sold in 2005 for $130,000.

I picked out a brand new house in Muscle Sholes, AL for her last summer for $100,000. She ould get $120,000 already.

The CA market affects every State. A starter house is $500,000 in many places. on 0.16 acre lots. Some people with nice 4/3 houses on 0.5 acre lots closer to downtown are selling them for one million and taking the money to Alabama and elsewhere.

In early 2000's, this money was part of the reason Lake Martin was going up so fast. It does not matter if they bought on Lake Martin exactly or another lake. It still drives up all the Country.

The last Boomers were born in 1964. The highest year was 1954. Collectively, they will hit their spending peak in 2008. The economy runs on spending, not earnings.

I built my house here in 2004 for $70/sq ft. My friend Ron just paid $175 in Los Banos, CA. He thinks that is normal. It is common enough for a new couple to meet and notice: hey I'm a widower and you're divorsed. Let's sell our two houses for $800,000 each and take the 1.6 million and buy a (cheap to them) $600,000 house somewhere else and live on the interest and retire on the interest of the million. So they find Lake Martin and drive up prices.

Ain't inflation fun if you are fully invested in land?

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