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Bob
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I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 2:32:13 PM
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Ok, so i know this makes me a shallow person but I can not resist...Below is the text by me of a post made on March 12th (you can search and verify):
"Folks, If the pattern does not change soon expect low water levels all summer long. We count on Spring rains to fill er up and give some "cushion" going into summer. If you remeber the last drought several year ago we had 486 tops around mid summer. We did get some tropical rains late that year but it did not help the summer.
The long range forecast has nothing promising...if you need a level of 487 or higher to get water I think you are in trouble. This will also hurt the already suffering condo market where a relatively worthless "fixed dock" is the norm. Just trying to prepare you "newbies" lurking here that it could and likely will happen if we don't get rain soon...and yes it really stinks I know..."
You may recall I was berated for this post by several folks (you know who you are). Well as I predicted we "topped out" at 486 . We will see the worst levels that I have EVER seen or heard of on the lake this summer. I do now think we could very well see winter pool in the summer. This saddens me greatly and not just because I like to ride in my boat. Many businesses on this lake will not make it with the population using the lake cut in 1/2 or worse. Furthermore, at lower than 483 , 80% of the docks on this lake are worthless even if they float. This will change the market at the lake for perhaps a decade to come as people become more aware of the risks of low water levels and their corresponding affect on the recreational activities on this lake. It will be a drag on "deep water" properties as well. The only thing that can save us now from a horrible year is a tropical system of almost biblical proportion and who wants to wish for that? If you look at weather patterns, these drought cycles tend to go longer than a season or two as well...sorry to be so depressing but the economic impact of what is to come is hardley being considered at all at this point.
We must lobby for higher winter pool levels to help our water level problems but that is several years away at best. Of course Dadeville" destruction of our lake will be even worse with reduced water flows...Everyone enjoy thier memorial day weekend...your boats will be in dry stack storage by the 4th....
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PartTimer
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I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 2:41:52 PM
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I think the suggestion of lobbying for better winter levels is the best solution. Obviously, we can't control the weather, BUT Alabama Power can control how low it pulls the lake levels in winter.
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hooks45
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 2:43:42 PM
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I sadly concure with your July 4th prediction.
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greycove
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Subject: |
Others experience?
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Date:
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5/23/2007 2:54:07 PM
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Good post...I sadly concur. I have been coming to the lake regularly in the summer for almost 30 years. I have never seen it this low this time of year. I really don't remember it ever failing to reach 488. Some have more experience than I. Would like to hear your perspective.
I do feel sorry for the businesses on the lake. I simply can't use my boat, but their livelihood is threatened. Is the tremendous growth on the lake baloon leaking air?
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Bamaonthelake
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 3:08:39 PM
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I thought I heard that the news reported this is the lowest Lake Martin has been this time of the year in 40 years.
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waterbug
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 3:44:48 PM
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I didn't laugh, I was scared you were right! We are some of those that will have NO water in our area if we are at winter pool. I can see that it will be a hard choice for us to commit to spending over $3 a gallon for gas to drive to the "lake" and see the mud pit. Even a whole bucket of well mixed ritas won't make that look better! That means, $200 a weekend trip to Walmart for groceries, no eating out down there, buying gas down there etc......so I can see that what you are pointing out here could be true. So what is the answer?
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Pier Pressure
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Subject: |
Solution
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Date:
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5/23/2007 3:52:13 PM
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Wait for next year... ;-(
Is Blue Creek easily accessible with the water so low? Is the channel marked?
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Name: |
F1Fan
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 4:15:49 PM
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You're right on all counts, and late summer looks like a bust unless people are also boating in downtown New Orleans again too.
"This will change the market at the lake for perhaps a decade to come as people become more aware of the risks of low water levels and their corresponding affect on the recreational activities on this lake."
ummmm, you might want to turn back your drama-dial just a tad however. A one-season impact on a decade of property sales after the last decades run-up seems highly unlikely.
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Bob, I think this is what some of us were getting at when we replied to your earlier post. Although you took it as a berating, I was not intending to berate and I don't think most others were either.
My point was that wonderful lake life will go on and that we should enjoy what we have....... even at a lower water level, some of us still see the glass as half full so to speak. The sky is not falling. That being said, if we can get more water year around, I'm with you and all for it. I'm also with you on the pollution issue. We can't make it rain, but we can do something about pollution.
....and feb, you should have taken me up on my bet for higher water levels; I would've lost that one!
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Name: |
Osms
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Subject: |
Bob...
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Date:
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5/23/2007 6:01:49 PM
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The real issue that will affect many Lake owners is that they bought property and that they did not adequately investigate the water depth or they took the realtor's word that the lake would always be full. You can blame APCo, God, realtors, developers, or builders, but when all is said and done we each can only point the finger at ourselves for a bad decision.
Cascades subdivision, on Sandy Creek, has not had water since last July or August. There are four houses around the bend from Cascades that have been dry since July--I call them Sea Doo houses because that's the only boat that'll reach their dock @ 490.
Condos are beening built all over Blue Creek that don't have decent water. The developers should have to eat some of these condos if the buying public gets a little smarter. Hopefully the buying public will learn from this experience. Set a list of priorities before you shop--if water is important--that's number 1--everything else is secondary.
If the developers lose their shirt over this low water--you can bet some on the junk built on the lake won't be repeated.
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LifeTime Laker
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Subject: |
The Great BOB has spoken
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Date:
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5/23/2007 6:15:20 PM
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Everybody get ready to get your new increased property taxes lowered when the bottom falls out of the real estate market!!
Let's see, I bought my current place in May 2000 with water already 2 ft below normal. By Labor Day we were practically at winter levels. Since then my property value has tripled with nothing but routine maintenance. No additions or remodels or upgrades. I can see how the drought affected the values in the 7/10's of a decade since then. That being said, BRING ON THE DROUGHTS!! <SARCASM OFF>
As for your "prediction', you must be psychic since we were already several inches below normal rainfall and APCO was already planning for drought, publishing the fact that they were having to burn coal instead of using hydro and applying for variances at other lakes. Are you charging us $2.99 a minute Bob. Look out Miss Cleo, you got some competition.
Obviously Bob thrives on drama, that is why I made the post yesterday about upstream treatment plants. I just didn't want him to feel unfulfilled this beautiful holiday weekend.
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Name: |
spud
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Subject: |
Miss Cleo ?
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Date:
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5/23/2007 7:55:24 PM
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I thought she ran a cat house in Millerville,Al.
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Name: |
MartiniMan
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/24/2007 10:54:02 AM
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I remember the prediction but not the vitriole that followed. The key to remember is that we are in the middle of the most significant drought in 50 years. I know it is tempting to pile on the real estate agents and it is disappointing to not have water (or enough water) but droughts have always come and gone and always will. APCO and FERC would also be open to significant criticism if they didnt drop the lake level enough in the winter and there was flooding around the lake and downstream during a rainy year. If they could predict a 50-year drought they would rule the world but we can't and they can't. Heck, half the time the weatherman can't tell you what the weather is gonig to be 3 days from now. Hang in there everybody, the water will be back. Probably not this year but hopefully next. And if this is a long-term weather change hopefully they will reduce the winter lowering to 5 feet.
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Name: |
LifeTime Laker
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/24/2007 12:45:24 PM
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No APCO CAN"T CONTROL HOW MUCH THEY PULL DOWN IN THE WINTER!!!!!!
It is controlled by the FERC!!!! NOT APCO!!!!!!!
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Name: |
Pier Pressure
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Subject: |
I told you so...
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Date:
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5/24/2007 4:57:39 PM
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How about we leave these decisions to those with enough technical data to base the decision. Who has EVER seen Lake Martin flood? This is the only lake I have been on that has never flooded during a heavy spring rain season. Spring a couple years ago (in fact, two springs in a row) the Alabama river was well above flood stage. Cooters pond in Prattville had water so high that the fixed dock was unaccessible. The water was at least 10 feet above normal. The water was so high that houses on the Alabama River Toll road (between Montgomery and Prattville) we inaccessible. And the reason for all this downstream flooding? So that Lake Martin and Jordan would not creast.
It makes sense that in a drought if winter levels were not so low then situations would be better for summer months, but what happens if it is not a drought and we get multiple tropical storms? Would you rather not have use of a dock for a couple of seasons, or have to rebuild your first level because of flooding?
Buying property on a lake is an inherited risk. No one (even us weekenders) likes it... But, as stated, you can make something good of it. Go out on the sand/mud and pitch a tent. Go walking along this newly created shoreline, etc...
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